The US is the reference case in its newly published International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019). The Administration of Energy Information (EIA) plans to increase world energy demand by almost 50% between 2018 and 2050. The majority of this growth comes from non-OECD countries and this development is centered on those areas where strong economic growth drives demand, particularly in Asia.
IEO2019 of the EIA analyses long-term global energy markets for 16 OECD and non-OECD regions around the world. IEO2019 is estimated in line with the 2019 Annual Energy Outlook in the United States.
The industrial sector, which comprises refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, represents the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector — over half of the energy use consumed over the projected period.
The energy consumption of transport between 2018 and 2050 rose by almost 40 percent. The growth of energy consumption in transportation between 2018 and 2050 rises by almost 80 percent, largely in non-OECD countries. For both personal and freight transport, energy consumption is growing significantly more rapidly in these countries than in many OECD countries.
Energy consumed in the construction industry, which comprises both residential and business buildings, grew by 65 percent from 91 to 139 quadrillion Btu between 2018 and 2050. Increased revenues, urbanization and access to electricity contribute to increased energy demand.
Renewables – including solar, wind and hydropower – are the fastest-growing source of energy between2018 and 2050 with the rapid growth in electricity generation and overcoming petroleum and other fluid as the most commonly used source for energy in the Reference case.
The global use of natural gas rises more than 40% between 2018 and 2050, hitting almost 200 quadrillions Btu by 2050. In the industrial sector, natural gas use rises as well as the natural gas used in the generation of electricity.
Consumption of liquid fuels over 20% rises between 2018 and 2050, while overall consumption in 2050 amounts to more than Btu 240 million. Demand remains fairly constant in the OECD countries throughout the forecast period, although non-OECD demand increases by about 45%.